10 things to look forward to in the next 10 years
Traversing Futures - urgently optimistic futures thinking from Isabel Serval
Many of us spend plenty of time speculating on the potential horrors of emerging phenomena and tech, spiralling into apocalyptic thinking, or utterly paralysed by the overwhelming amount and speed of change.
Our default state is naturally to be afraid of change, and to look for hazards before positive transformation. This is our animal instinct, and not to be ignored. At the same time, we love complaining about things in the here and now that we’re dissatisfied with, but rarely notice that we may truly be able to improve on matters.
10 things to look forward to in the next 10 years looks at near-certain emergence. Things that will almost certainly definitely happen, unless something massively gets in the way. My aim is not to be overly optimistic and ignore dangers, but to inspire us all to move in the directions that we feel are genuinely an improvement to life on Earth.
Here we go!
1. Your personal AI Jeeves makes all your troubles go away
I will call affectionately it BellaAI. It will ring my bank, sort out my direct debit woes, talk to the printer, ask me to check my Self-Assessment before sending it on to HMRC, check if we need to re-order cat litter, organise all my reading and research without me, remind me of whose messages I need to reply to and let me dictate to it while I’m chopping onions. It will keep all my information encrypted and secure and never advertise anything to me, because I pay a small fee. I can’t wait to meet you, BellaAI.
Timeline: Personal, private and agentic (= it can do stuff for you) AI isn’t here yet, but it’s a couple of years away (if that, DeepSeek) from launching and being so good that we all want it.
Who benefits: everyone with an internet connection and the spare cash for the subscription – but especially the lesser organised among us (hi, ADHD friends)
Who’s excluded: everyone without access to decent internet, power supply, a device and spare cash
Dependencies: the public/consumer must insist on fully encrypted, private systems (ideally as a public good, owned as a co-operative). Incoming ads would be one (horrible) thing, but outflow of personal data is completely unacceptable, as it opens the door to a fully-fledged super-surveillance state – not to mention what might happen if all data flows into a single, all powerful artificial superintelligence.
2. Cruelty-free brain-food
There is very strong evidence of the positive effects of high-protein diets – on brain and muscle development, longevity, and to improve symptoms of the menopause, ADHD and other cognitive conditions. Most of us, however, would rather not kill animals given a choice, and getting plenty of protein without meat is challenging unless you’re willing to eat double the calories you need in a day. Enter: lab meat! OK, we need to rebrand it as it smacks of science rather than tastiness. But what a win – for animals, for food safety, for the climate and in my preferred scenario, for decolonisation: tomorrow’s people are going to school in Africa today. An affordable, safe and tasty high-protein diet will help to fuel learning, creativity and ideas from today’s future generations.
Who benefits: if we do it right, everyone and all our brains. Our future older selves. Animals currently kept in cramped and cruel conditions waiting to be slaughtered. The environment.
Who’s excluded: people who can’t afford it, if we don’t scale up equitably. Industrial cattle and poultry farmers, if they don’t want to transition to small scale high quality production (there will always be a market for live meat). Vegans, probably… people who get the lab-ick and insist that natural must be superior, even if it’s cruel.
Dependencies: it needs to be scaled up significantly to become widely available, and not be blocked from entering the markets that would benefit most.
3. Electric flight
While the androids keep dreaming of electric sheep, us humans are making our dreams of electric flight come true. Dubai has flying taxis, and it’s only a matter of time until short-haul flights are electrified, and therefore low-carbon. This also opens up new possibilities for intra-city transport… I see pilot-free AI-controlled flying pods on fixed flight paths…?
Who benefits: people not getting anywhere because the railways are awful/don’t exists, people who curb short-haul flying because of the carbon footprint although they really need/want to get places, the environment/climate
Who’s excluded: probably most of the world, for a long time.
Dependencies: this needs abundant, cheap renewable energy to scale. In the current scarcity model we can’t even power the basics.
4. The skinny revolution
Expensive medication such as Ozempic is already showing tremendous (largely positive) results, and will likely significantly lower obesity rates in the next cohort of elderly people in industrialised nations. These medications are however not ideal because of the need for injections, the cost and the need to keep taking them to maintain the effect. The first two problems are likely to be resolved over the coming few years, as a tablet alternative is soon to enter the market.
Over a year ago I also read about a non-pharmaceutical weightloss pill that acts as a little sieve . I have not yet seen it re-emerge, but this is a very busy medical space and I will confidently suggest that the end of obesity is in sight.
Who benefits: people who are overweight and/or suffering from diabetes, overburdened health systems around the world
Who’s excluded: if it remains scarce and expensive, most people – but this is unlikely. Since these meds are appetite-suppressants, it could as a knock-on effect cost the junk food, sugary food and drinks industry.
Dependencies: the pharmaceutical industry is highly profit-driven and needs incentives and public pressure to act in the interest of the many.
5. All hail: your driverless ride / the end of private car ownership
Fully-autonomous self-driving cars haven’t taken over the roads as quickly as anticipated, but they will at some point. You’ll likely hail a car just like you hail a taxi with an app now: it shows up in a few minutes, drops you off, and goes off on its own. No parking, no road taxes, no maintenance, no driving license required. It will be so persuasive to the majority, that most who have access to these services will no longer want to own a car. (Of course, there are always people who love to drive, but this will become as niche as people who love to ride horses.)
This makes private EV transport hugely efficient, removes a lot of traffic jams and perhaps to my greatest delight, removes parked cars from our streets. This firstly looks a lot better, and it creates a lot more urban and town space for wider pavements, cycle lanes and greenery.
To be fair, within the decade may be a touch optimistic, but I CAN’T WAIT.
Who benefits: everyone who needs private transport, everywhere. The climate and the environment. City dwellers.
Who’s excluded: the countries stuck in oil-dependent, lagging economies, also countries that may not transition fast enough and regions that don’t have good enough GPS, internet and roads. The car insurance industry.
6. The mainstream futurist
The fields of strategic foresight and strategic thinking are having a real moment. Academic courses are popping up around the world, as are conferences, courses and futures and foresight departments both private, public and third sector. I look forward to the mainstreaming of the field: every sensible organisation has a futures department, or a dedicated, trained practitioner in the wider strategy team. And maybe, one day, I won’t need to explain my job to absolutely everyone.
Who benefits: all organisations that hire foresight professionals
Who’s excluded: the ones that don’t
Dependencies: common sense
7. Culture soup
The dominance of Western (primarily US and UK) narratives and culture will melt away further in an increasingly multi-polar world. Already we see the rise of subcultures inside Britain and the US that are actively more curious about African and Arab music, styles, stories, art and creativity.
With decolonisation getting a good push from change and tastemakers within Western nations, the BRICS+ countries are also very likely to exchange more culture than they already do, and this is likely to find wider audiences. Perhaps we’ll see a Malaysian TV series with Ethiopian popstars becoming a Netflix favourite, the catwalks stolen by collaborations between Pakistani, Moroccan and Emirati designers, Lebanese and Turkish restaurants popping up in Mumbai and Shanghai, Korean noodles in Accra and Jollof rice in Bangkok.
Who benefits: humanity
Who’s excluded: the racists/white supremacists, Rupert Murdoch et al
Dependencies: none, this is inevitable
8. The beginning of the end of the hamster wheel of work
With Gen-Z on the rise, we’re seeing a growing group of working-age people completely unsubscribing from the tedious model of dreary full-time jobs for bosses who don’t care and salaries that don’t reward or respect you as a human.
While there will be friction with job-losses due to further AI-powered automation and sectors that are less able to be flexible and/or automate, the rules will no doubt change forever. Younger people are not willing to bend over backwards for mediocre careers, and are much more likely to create new rules in new sectors on their own terms. In fact, generative and agentive AI will help them/us do this in many ways – with digital assets and marketing, communications, supply lines, investments, trend forecasting and adaptation – you name it.
This is true not just in developed economies. Anywhere people have an internet connection, people will jump on opportunities to create value where they see a gap. And this means it will become more difficult for the Deloittes, Unilevers and CapGeminis of the world to attract the right talent, which is likely to either push up wages and adapt culture, or lead to their slow demise.
Who benefits: everyone not willing to put up with stupid jobs, entrepreneurial, collaborative and creative people
Who’s excluded: the old guard who are comfortable in jobs that are no longer needed and/or unwilling to learn and adapt
Dependencies: whether this is a good thing for most or not, depends entirely on policymakers and how well they work with industry to enable transformation
9. Furrever furry friends, for longer
The scientific progress in longevity is absolutely exploding, and I could pick so many breakthrough technologies that are likely to help us live healthier for longer in the near future. I will however choose one that delights me and is often a little overlooked, despite being well-funded: the longevity of cats and dogs.
Seeing your beloved animal companion suffer with old-age illness is beyond heartbreaking. Now that we understand so much more about DNA, cell degradation and everything in our bodies that makes us age and causes disease, we’re getting close to doubling the healthy lifespan of both cats and dogs.
Scientists are much closer to achieving this with smaller mammals (than humans) because of successful trials with rodents, and the ability to push the science because there is certain to be a market for these therapies. To be clear: it is the health that elongates the lifespan because these drugs tackle the cellular causes of degradation that cause disease. Nobody wants your kittie to live till 30 with arthritis and diabetes.
Who benefits: pets and pet owners who can afford these therapies, by extension humanity – as this is one step closer to successful human longevity drugs
Who’s excluded: all the stray cats and dogs around the world :’(
Dependencies: the science is close but not quite there yet, there could be undesirable outcomes we’re not aware of yet
10. Solar panels in space!
China has just launched a huge solar space programme. I’m enthusiastic about this one - even though it’s still more of a signal of change than an inevitable outcome – because it takes the world one step closer to abundant renewable energy.
Together with an array of other existing and emerging renewable energy technologies, solar from space could herald a supercharged era of immense advancement. Because water desalination depends largely on energy use as well, limits on the use of genAI would all but disappear. Quantum computing, robotics (including the ones we need to build and maintain the solar panels in space), electric flight and a whole array of fancy stuff that is now unimaginable. And let’s not forget that almost 300 years after Watson invented the lightbulb, million of people still don’t have reliable electricity.
Illumination alone boosts academic achievement times over. Illumination plus air conditioning plus generative AI everywhere – that’s what would lift humanity out of abject poverty and into an era of learning, health and it would almost certainly end food poverty.
Who benefits: everyone who gets access to solar from space
Who’s excluded: nations that don’t
Dependencies: while it’s likely to usher in abundance that spills well over all borders, it’s no guarantee. It is possible that the owners of space solar would hoard the energy for themselves.
First of all yes to the last sentence!
I'm pessimistic because I don't often see it solving the problems that need solving. For example in my field- hydroponics, I'm not against the technology (energy use >energy output not withstanding) I'm against the idea that the producing more food will solve hunger when the problem is poverty, resource wars and displacement of people and not inadequate food supply.
Far too often investment goes to technological fixes when the problem is a social one. Your banking robot for example. How about getting rid of banks?
Maybe we all have visions of the future which look like hell to another person. Culture soup is great to me, it's hideous to a lot of people in the country I live in.
Love this kind of thinking, Isabel!
You’re absolutely right that “what if?” is a way more constructive question to ask than “what now?” I’m excited for a lot of these takes, although I’m a little hesitant about driverless cars. Perhaps I’ve watched too many sci-fi films - Upgrade (2018) comes to mind. Would recommend!
Looking forward to your next post 😊